Impact Soccer

McCarthy's Musings: Growth Potential
Montreal heads the list of seven cities hoping to land an MLS team in the next round of expansion. Goal.com's Kyle McCarthy breaks down the prospective contenders.

By Kyle McCarthy

The much anticipated day has arrived. Start placing your bets now. It's expansion season.

For seven cities across two countries, hope pushes you onwards. For those of you in Queens or Las Vegas, the time to wonder what has gone wrong has now arrived.

For pundits like me, it's time for a snap judgment on which two cities have the best chance of landing a team when the selections are announced later this year or early in 2009.

The criteria outlined by the league are as follows: strength of ownership group, stadium plan and market attributes.

Mindful of those criteria, here is how I see things as they stand right now.

1. Montreal – The Saputo and Gillett families

Expandable stadium in place? Check. Stadium located within city limits? Check. Stadium on public transportation? Check. Well-funded owners with soccer experience? Check. Largest city on the list? Check. Largest Canadian city on the list? Check. Multicultural fanbase? Check. Successful USL franchise? Check. Fierce rivalry with league's most supported team? Check. Said rivalry within a six hour drive? Check.

Dock them for giving away tickets to USL games and having a rather spartan facility if you want. Even with that, Montreal is by far and away the leader in the clubhouse.

2. Portland – The Paulson family

Portland isn't the largest city on the list. The Paulsons aren't the wealthiest prospective owners. But the Timbers do play in a quaint stadium inside city limits almost directly off the highway and could likely get a sweetheart lease deal from the city and the Paulsons have a commitment to the sport. PGE Park would need some work to prepare for soccer and would need to relocate the AAA team sharing the stadium, but it's doable. History shows the market will support the team and there is an established rivalry with Seattle. Yet the strongest case for Portland is that MLS wants another team to partner Seattle in the Northwest and can't have...

3. Vancouver – Greg Kerfoot, Steve Nash and Jeff Mallett

If Vancouver were located inside the the United States, it would be second on this list. There is little chance – or there should be, considering the considerable American interest – of the league expanding to two Canadian cities in this round of expansion. This is a strong ownership group with significant experience in the soccer community. If Kerfoot can somehow get his stadium built downtown, then the league has to revisit the situation. But three Canadian teams appears one too many with the league perched at 18 and Montreal has more to work with than Vancouver.

4. Miami – FC Barcelona / Marcelo Claure

External pressures will play a role here. The rest of the world likely expects Barca to land a team just because the Catalan giants want one. It won't be that easy. Soccer failed here once before and Miami FC hasn't exactly thrived in the second go-around. Admittedly, the demographics are better this time around, the ownership group is stronger and there is some groundswell for the move around the league because of the market size and the local political support. But combine the iffy history with the university-owned stadium – which is slated to expand to an unworkable 45,000 by 2011 -- and signs point to no this time, even if the league should establish a presence in the Southeast.

5. Atlanta – Arthur Blank

Blank is a wealthy investor willing to fund a team and a stadium complex in Atlanta. There are few bad words to say about Blank or his commitment to professional sports in Atlanta. That's the good news. The bad news is that the market just doesn't seem particularly interested and the complex would likely have to be located somewhere out in the suburbs, according to an Atlanta Business Chronicle story.

6. St. Louis – Investment group led by Jeff Cooper

Cooper has admirable tenacity. He has fought for this project for years. Having a committed owner like Cooper would be beneficial to the league and St. Louis remains an attractive market. Despite the positives, there are two fatal flaws with this bid: (1) there is a significant evidence to show that Cooper does not have deep enough pockets – mystery investors or not – to play at this level and (2) the proposed stadium complex would be located across the river in Collinsville, Ill. On other lists, this bid will end up closer to the top, but those flaws can't and should not be overlooked.

7. Ottawa – Eugene Melnyk

The league just won't expand to suburban Ottawa with better options in larger American cities, especially when the city has little soccer pedigree.


http://www.goal.com/en-us/Articolo.aspx ... oId=914457

Here's a little report on the economic crisis and it's possible effects on MLS. A club by club analysis, including actual MLS teams and the new expension bids:

Even though I think this paper is a little easy, I went straight to the point and only pasted the expension bids as well as Toronto, Seattle and Philly:

Think the global economic downturn has gone un-noticed by MLS? Certainly other American sports are feeling the pinch and reacting and certainly overseas clubs are as well, but what about MLS?

Miami
FC Barcelona is a strong investment group, they are a solid brand and they appear to be one of the European clubs in the best financial situation at the moment. It is unclear what Bolivar's financial situation is however. Miami expansion plans if they are dependent on a new stadium near the Orange Bowl may be affected but we see no reason why a Barca backed Miami team would not be able to ride out the storm during the "lean years" at Florida International University since the university would basically be allowing them to play there rent free.

Montréal
Ownership of Premiership giant, Liverpool and the debt that goes along with that we feel that Montreal would likely be a modest club in terms of what they're willing to spend outside the salary cap. Montreal - Positive: Joey Saputo. Negative: George Gillett - Due to the latter'sGillett has already postponed plans for a new stadium for Liverpool which may indicate his wealth is taking a hit in the current economic climate. He may be reluctant to spend much should Montreal be awarded an expansion.

Philadelphia
Philadelphia may be a study of right place, right time. Philadelphia was awarded a club after their quite substantial ownership group made a strong case to the city, region and state government to enter into a partnership to develop part of the City of Chester around a Soccer Specific Stadium, Had negotiations dragged out then things might have been much different. The reason is due to the nature of the economic downturn. Philadelphia fans who were salivating at the thought of a big time Designated Player brought to the stadium on the Delaware River courtesy of the deep pockets of investor, iStar Financial may want to dial it down a bit. According to this report in the Wall Street Journal, iStar Financial's debt rating has been cut down to "junk status".

Portland
Portland Timbers -Well, what to say about this one? Timbers owner MerittPaulson III is a wealthy man who happens to have a very solid plan for the conversion and expansion of the TImbers home PGE park. It doesn't hurt that his father, a minority partner in the Timbers is also the current US Secretary of the Treasury. We think the Timbers will do just fine.

Saint Louis
St Louis fans are likely asking, "What is taking so long, weren't we supposed to have a team by now?" Well yes. But now the economic collapse is here and unfortunately their bid may be the first real victim of the crises if MLS determines that St Louis is still under-capitaled. Since we do not know who the big money partners to St Louis attorney Jeff Cooper are it is hard to make any determination as to how they would proceed in the current climate.

Seattle
Microsoft. That's all that needs to be said. Regardless of what happens, Microsoft has a virtual license to print money. Additionally, Joe Roth's capital investments are well diversified and Hollywood rarely suffers greatly during a recession. The Sounders should not miss a beat and will likely be very active in the transfer market this coming winter.

Toronto
Toronto FC is the second highest valued club in MLS bringing in $17 million a year. Owners Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment seem solidly situated and know where and how to spend but most importantly for Toronto FC fans, when to spend. The economic turmoil has affected Canada to a lesser degree than the USA but MLSE's financial interests lie in leagues that play most of their games south of the border in the US so they will no doubt fill the pinch. Will John Carver get the Designated Player he is demanding this winter? Our view, not if things continue in a downward spiral as illustrated by the chart above.

Vancouver
A stadium for the Whitecaps near the waterfront has been debated and delayed for years. Whether that continues to be the case and whether any potential ownership group is well heeled enough to not only own and operate a club in MLS but also see that its own ground is built remains to be seen. There's a lot to be hopeful for with Steve Nash on board. Whether that is enough to push a stadium deal through is an open question. Make no mistake, the economic downturn and changing attitudes about what to do with the land a potential stadium might be built on may mean that MLS is faced with a prospect at playing games at a renovated BC Place for a lot longer than first thought. That prospect may be a pill to bitter to swallow.

In the end all of this is speculation and the economy could of course rebound at any given time but if what many are saying is true, then the effects are bound to be felt within MLS in the years ahead and could well have effects that shape MLS for the decades ahead.

http://www.mls-rumors.net/2008/10/repor ... d-how.html

They talk about TFC but forgot Ottawa.... funny.

À lire le peu que Goal.com ont écrit sur Ottawa, je ne crois pas que le projet de Melnyk soit pris très au sérieux.
Je serais curieux de savoir ce qu'en pense notre ami Garber.

Montreal in pole position for one of the expansion spots
By Ives Galarcep, Special to ESPNsoccernet
October 17, 2008

The 2011 Major League Soccer season might seem far in the distance, but it's less than two and a half years away. Fewer than 30 months for two new ownership groups to step up, spend tens of millions and build professional soccer teams from scratch. Two cities will be chosen to join MLS by 2011 and the path to selecting those two cities is going to hold the attention of soccer fans in every current and potentially future MLS market for the next two months.

Fans in the South are wondering whether Atlanta, a relative underdog in the expansion race, can help MLS break ground in that part of the country for the first time since two Florida teams were dissolved after the 2001 season. Fans in Canada are wondering if MLS is ready to add another team north of the border to join Toronto FC.

Then there are the established soccer-loving cities that have been linked to potential MLS franchises for years. Portland and St. Louis have long been considered favorites that deserve a place in MLS, whether for their roles in American soccer history or their strong fan bases.

Lastly you have Miami, the market that has already lost an MLS club once. A local billionaire and a European soccer powerhouse have teamed up to give Miami a real chance of winning the expansion battle.

It can be argued that there are enough good expansion prospects to have MLS expand by four teams in the next three years, but the strains on the league's talent pool might dilute the talent too much. With Seattle set to come on board in 2009, and Philadelphia joining in 2010, MLS will have added four teams over the course of four years BEFORE the two new teams would be added in 2011.

Just how important is winning one of these two expansion slots? When you consider that MLS might put a moratorium on expansion for as many as two to three years after reaching 18 teams, and you also consider that a second New York team would stand a very good chance of being a top contender in 2013 or 2014, missing out on the expansion class of 2011 could mean missing out on MLS for three or four years, if not longer.

So how do the seven expansion candidates compare? Here is a closer look at all seven bids, along with how they stack up in the quest to become one of the two cities to be chosen for MLS expansion by 2011:

Atlanta

When an NFL owner is seriously interested in joining MLS, MLS listens. Atlanta Falcons owner Arthur Blank, who made his fortune co-founding Home Depot, has the sports marketing savvy and local pull that has MLS believing he could cultivate a burgeoning soccer market.

So what is working against Atlanta's bid? The lack of a tangible stadium plan is the biggest hurdle for Atlanta to overcome. Blank's group has looked into possible stadium sites in the Atlanta suburbs of Cobb County and Gwinnett County as possibilities. Atlanta will need to piece together a stronger stadium proposal if it is going to really challenge the expansion favorites. Strength of bid: C+

Miami

Having a billionaire backing the bid isn't enough on its own to make Miami a strong contender. But combine billionaire Marcelo Claure with the international pull of Spanish powerhouse FC Barcelona, and you suddenly have a bid MLS must take seriously.

The biggest concerns surrounding the Miami bid is history, namely the fact that former MLS team Miami Fusion tried and failed as a business from 1998 to 2001. Miami supporters will point out that the Fusion played in Ft. Lauderdale and not in Miami, and the Fusion didn't have the type of ownership group the new Miami team could boast. With Claure's financial muscle and Barcelona's soccer organization skills, Miami could take full advantage of the changing demographics in the area. The fact that the Miami group wants to launch in 2010 shows you how ready it thinks Miami is to have MLS back. Strength of bid: B

Montreal

Considered one of the front-runners even before the final seven was set, Montreal boasts rich owners, an established soccer fan base, an existing infrastructure courtesy of a successful USL team and, perhaps most importantly, an existing stadium that can be increased in size.

Between Montreal Impact owner Joey Saputo and Liverpool co-owner George Gillet, the Montreal expansion team would have plenty of soccer management experience, as well as the deep pockets to ensure the long-term success of an expansion club. Throw in the possibility that having teams in Montreal and Toronto could move MLS a step closer to a Canadian national television contract, it is tough to imagine Montreal not being chosen when it has the most complete bid in the bunch. Strength of bid: A

Ottawa

Easily the biggest long shot in the field, Ottawa has a prospective owner in billionaire Senators owner Eugene Melnyk and a promising plan for a 20,000-seat soccer stadium, but not much else. There is the potential for a rivalry with Toronto FC, but that is already one of Montreal's selling points.

So why should we believe that Ottawa would embrace a soccer team? The city successfully hosted Under-20 World Cup matches in 2007, creating good buzz that helped create the impetus for this bid. Is that enough to seriously consider Ottawa over Montreal, or any of the American candidates? Not really. Consider this the longest of long shots. Strength of bid: C-

Portland

While other candidates are leaning on billionaires and innovative stadium plans, the Portland bid is leaning heavily on its most impressive asset: the city's rabid soccer fans. There is little arguing that the USL Portland Timbers boast one of the strongest fan bases in North America, and its established rivalry with incoming MLS expansion team Seattle Sounders FC has the Rose City looking like an easy call.

So why wouldn't Portland be a shoe-in? The bid is contingent on the city of Portland renovating PGE Park and building a new stadium for the city's minor league baseball team, which isn't overly appealing. Also, the media market is relatively small in Portland (the smallest market of the four American bids, but not much smaller than St. Louis and still larger than current MLS cities Columbus and Salt Lake City). The state of the nation's economy could wind up hurting this bid, which is far from the lock that some might think it is. Strength of bid: B+

St. Louis

You have to feel for the soccer fans in St. Louis, who must be completely perplexed by how a city with so much soccer history and such a reputation for supporting the sport hasn't already joined MLS. The simple answer is money. It's unclear whether there is a prospective owner with sufficient financial backing to not just bring MLS to St. Louis, but help an MLS team flourish there.

Enter Jeff Cooper, the leader of the St. Louis bid. He has succeeded in helping establish the framework for a soccer stadium that would be, at least in part, publicly funded. As important as that is, MLS must still be concerned with the lack of an owner or owners with deep pockets to help guarantee the future stability of the club. That said, the city's soccer history and stadium plan have it among the front-runners. Strength of bid: B+

Vancouver

There is no bid with a more high-profile face than Vancouver's, which boasts NBA star Steve Nash as a figurehead. Throw in Greg Kerfoot, owner of the USL champion Whitecaps, and former Yahoo! executive Jeffrey Mallet, and Vancouver actually boasts a strong ownership group. That, coupled with the potential for a rivalry with Seattle, make Vancouver a serious candidate.

What stands in the way? Portland is the biggest obstacle, with only one of those Pacific Northwest cities likely to be given a team. Then you have the Montreal bid, which is the favorite among the Canadian bids. If Vancouver's impressive plans for a waterfront soccer stadium were further along (the Whitecaps are set to move into 59,000-seat B.C. Place stadium in 2010) the bid would be a more serious contender. As it stands, it is playing second fiddle in two major categories, something that will be difficult to overcome. Strength of bid: C+

http://soccernet.espn.go.com/columns/st ... ls&cc=5901